12/08/2013

Yesterday was the BJJ blue belt test at the UFC gym in Honolulu.  Finally, I have been able to test for my blue belt and passed the test.  In reality it was pretty easy and more of knowledge review that real test.  All 17 people who took the test passed.  Although after my last performance at the triple crown grappling tournament, it would seem that staying in the white belt competition group might be better since I didnt do so well in that group.  Then I would have been near the top of group, now I am back at the bottom of the blue belt ranks.

The one good thing that comes from this is the sparring groups that take place on Sunday, although that is my surf day.  The groups usually are looking for blue and higher to make sure that everyone has at least some skill to make it more fun for everyone.

The last couple weeks has been a real heavy focus on my jujitsu, now its time to get back to more complete MMA training.  I am waiting for a match confirmation to fight on the Destiny card in January.  I am looking forward to training at HMC with a more MMA focused coach along with Arthur from M-1 and the grappling at UFC.  Between the three gyms I think its a really good dynamic and mix of styles.  The last couple times grappling I have felt like my control and submission flow has been a lot smoother.  Although I still have not been finishing as well as I would like, if I can work on holding positions and transitions then the MMA ground should be a lot better and wont have to worry about being on the ground as much.  Also will make getting back to my feet a lot easier.

Have an interview with some people at a group called smart karate next week, maybe I can start teaching some martial arts as well as training it all the time...

A long Weekend, 11/25/2013

This past weekend ended being rather packed.  Saturday was the Hawaii Triple Crown BJJ tournament.  I entered both the white belt gi and intermediate no gi at 137-149.  I weighed in at 149.9, a good start, but that was about the only good thing.  I lost all three of my matches.  Although I did get third in the no gi division... there were only competitors though.  On the plus side, I was not submitted, but lost on points.  Sport juijutsu is not quite my game.

The gi match was somewhat questionable in my mind and if it had been scored by fight rules I think I should have won.  I had the only submission attempt and was pretty close.  I lost 4-2 on points and ran out of time before I could capitalize on the position gained from the sub attempt.  My opponent went on to win that division.

In the no gi, I lost the first match, he was better.  Second match though ended going to a second OT round and lost on a take down.  0-2.  Spent the whole match trying to break my opponents guard and was just somewhat frustrating.

I realize that sport BJJ is not my specialty, if that had been MMA I would have been happy to stay in guard and hit them.  Much easier to break guard when you can punch people, but it was a good experience.  The only real frustration comes from how short matches are and how long the event is for $80.  Spent the better part of 6 hours there for a total of 20 minutes.  Even if I had won all my matches it still would only have been less than an hour of match time.  The NAGA is better attended, it may be worth it, but then I am not sure how much more I want to lose on points...

Then Sunday was the Xterra half marathon at Kuolua Ranch.  I was really hoping that my knee would hold up on the trails better than it did on the pavement... but it didnt. I felt like I was putting in a really good time, first 10 miles in 80 minutes, holding about that 8 minute mile pace on the trails and making up for the slow start that comes from too many people packed on tight trails and bottle-necking.  But about mile 8/9 I started feeling that ache in my knee and by mile 10 I couldnt keep pushing without knowing that last time I was unable to run for weeks afterwards.  The uphills were fine, but the trails had some really steep downhills that I couldnt handle and had to walk.  The last 3 miles took 45 minutes.

The most annoying part though ironically was all the support people were trying to offer as they went by.  At first it was nice, "you can do it" "your almost there" etc.  But I wasnt tired.  I wasnt walking because I was fatigued, my knee couldnt handle it and I was thinking "aaahhh I can out run all of you, I dont need encouragement to overcome fatigue I need a cortisone shot".  Anyway I walked most of the last 3 miles, running up the hills and walking down and jogged through the finish at 2:08:00.  I really would have liked to been able to finish at the 1:40-1:50 pace I was on, but hope that I was able to slow enough to be able to recover faster than the 4 weeks it took after the last one.

To that end I am going to meet with the PT today and see what they have to say.  My right knee can handle it fine, so there should be a way to get the left one to work.  I just hope it can be in shape quick so I can run to keep my cardio up for my next MMA fight.  Unlike this weekends events, that one I am not going to lose.

A self analysis

Cultural Values:

A Self-Analysis

Brian Long

The Chicago School of Professional Psychology

Schwartz proposed ten separate value types that can be used to measure individual value preferences (Smith, Bond, & Kagitcibasi, 2006).  The ten value types, created from a list of 56 original values, can help to measure values at an individual level and then be used to extrapolate trends to be evaluated at a national level.  Finding a way to evaluate the meaning of values and beliefs becomes challenging when one considers that ‘being a good friend’ or ‘expressing love’ can take on different forms in different cultures.  Finding equivalence in ideas and value expression is the first step in attempting large-scale multinational or cross-cultural comparisons.  However, before one begins to examine others, it is useful to have deep understanding of oneself.

Using Schwartz’s 10 value dimensions, this author will perform a self-analysis.  Using the broad bipolar horizontal and vertical dimensions to start, this author would place himself in the corner of openness to change and self-enhancement (Smith et al., 2006).  However, there are several values in other areas that are very important and should be included in this author’s self-analysis.  Each value and its importance to this author will be examined in turn.

1.              Power.  Concern over public image, social power or recognition has never been very important to this author.  While wealth is always nice to have, it is not worth the endless pursuit that some of this author’s peers have sacrificed to achieve.  Overall, there are many other values more important than power.

2.              Security.  This author is split on the values that comprise security.  Aspects such as clean and reciprocation of favors are very important.  However, other aspects, such as sense of belonging, are not a high priority.  Having lived among cultures where it was made clear this author was an outsider and enjoying that life, belonging in a place is what you make.

3.              Conformity.  While self-discipline is important, this author would not include that value as part of conformity.  Conformity is not a value that this author embodies or believes to be beneficial.  Breaking the norm helps advance society in new directions, not always the best directions, but challenging traditions is what leads to new breakthroughs in thought.

4.              Tradition.  Similar to conformity, tradition is something that does not hold much value to this author.  Just because its tradition doesn’t make it good, it makes it old.  Some traditions are great and help build a connection to the culture and history of a people, others are held on to long beyond their usefulness.

5.              Benevolence.  This value group is very important and where this author would place self-discipline.  Honesty, loyalty, responsibility and friendship are values that this author tries to embody on a daily basis.

6.              Universalism.  Growing out of benevolence, universalism comes naturally; one cannot exist without the other.  Taking a broadminded view, equality and social justice, along with appreciation of nature are reasons why this author decided to move from China to Hawaii.  Life in China was an amazing experience, but the call of nature and enjoying the natural world in which you live was more important than the financial opportunities available.

7.              Self-Direction.  This value is the most important on the list.  It embodies the majority of the driving factors that have affected life decisions this author has made.  Choosing own goals, curious, freedom; these values motivated this author to move to China, study psychology, and engage in the lifestyle currently enjoyed.

8.              Stimulation.  This is a close second to self-direction.  Education and self-enhancement come first, but only as long as life can be exciting and fun.  It is the fun factor that makes the hard work worthwhile. 

9.              Hedonism.  While stimulation and self-direction are similar to hedonism, it lacks the self-regulation needed to achieve success.  Pleasure, for this author, comes from success and achievement, not simply for indulgence sake.

10.           Achievement.  This value would rank third in this author’s hierarchy of values.  Hard work, self-discipline and an exciting life payout in achievement.  While learning a new skill is a worthwhile endeavor, intelligence, ability and success are very important.  There is only so long this author can spend in a pursuit that does not yield some sense of achievement.

Classifying oneself on Schwartz’s value scale is difficult, trying to extend this to a culture of diverse individuals would be even more challenging.  Taking that beyond to multicultural comparisons is a trying task at best.  The research that has been put forward so far shows great convergence on the overall meaning behind each of the values measured by Schwartz, but more research will be needed to continually update and improve cross-cultural comparisons.

References

Smith, P.B., Bond, M.H., & Kagitcibasi, C.  (2006).  Understanding social psychology across cultures: Living and working in a changing world.  London: Sage Publications.

A day after 30

So its the day after my 30 birthday, I wanted to write something but really have no idea what to put down.  Last night was pretty low key.  A nice dinner at Teppanyaki place with Vieve, Robyn, and Marina.  Seems this year instead of one big day there are going to be several events spread over two weeks.  Last night dinner, tonight full moon surfing (although that would probably happen birthday or not), tomorrow going to see some people I train with fight both MMA and Muay Thai, then next weekend is going to be an overnight camping excursion.  So even though its spread out, it is far more than could be done in one day.

School is going well, but with the time demands of training and study it feels like things are going so fast.  I moved out here almost 10 months ago, the last year plus has been more new experiences and challenges than I can really comprehend. Guess I got to pack it all in now before things start to fall apart and I cant do any of the sports I enjoy any more.

09/10/13

A quick update of some things that have been happening over the last couple days...

Last weekend I got my third stripe on my white belt.  I think with this and a couple more months of solid training I will be able to take my blue belt test either in December or the time after that.  I think my travel schedule is going to mess with my training a little, but its going to be good for the body to have a month off from getting battered.  My jiujiitsu seems to be coming along, the no gi is getting much better, but I am enjoying the gi as well.

I have been surfing a bit more and starting to get a least a little better, although that seems to be coming along slower than my BJJ.  Yesterday was nice, not a lot of waves, but the water was really calm.  Marina has been helping quite a bit, although I get the feeling that she enjoys watching me spill as much as she enjoys helping me get better.  Now its more about doing everything that I know I should be rather than learning new skills.  I am starting to see how, if one were good at this, surfing could be pretty fun.  Its also way easier to go out and do than skiing.  With the water there are no lift tickets, in Hawaii at least you are so close that you dont have to take a day to get to the mountain and can just get out and go on to whatever you have to do.

I am slowly starting to get ready for the half marathon I have coming up in Nov.  Its really hard to motivate to run with the all the other trainings that I am trying to get in.  But my knees are doing ok with the light runs, 3-4 miles.  Just need to get that up to 8-10 without any real discomfort and I will feel good about the race and not worry about my knee.  Why cant the muscle conditioning in one sport transfer completely to other sports?

Its time to get ready to head to the gym.  Oh and school is...going again.  Fuck Im busy...

Childhood Development of Bruce Wayne

Since someone asked...

Psychosocial Theory and Child Development:

The case of Bruce Wayne

Brian Long

The Chicago School of Professional Psychology

Abstract

Childhood development is influenced by a myriad of factors.  Traumatic events, such as the loss of parents can have significant and debilitating effects on child emotional and social development.  This paper will explore the childhood development of Bruce Wayne and specifically the effect of the murder of his parents at a young age on his emotional and social development.  After the murder of his parents, the presence of his life long family butler, Alfred Pennywise, was instrumental in his positive development.  Childhood bereavement and moral development will specifically be explored as they relate to Bruce Wayne and his alter ego, Batman.

Keywords: parental loss, childhood development, psychosocial development, Kohlberg moral development

For this assignment the childhood development of Bruce Wayne in the film Batman Begins will be explored.  The character Bruce Wayne experienced several traumatic events in his childhood that affected his development and led to the creation of his alter ego, Batman.  The effects of two related events will be explored in detail, an early childhood accident that led to a fear of bats and the murder of his parents in front of him at a young age.  These two events played a significant role in Bruce Wayne’s development as a child and will be explored using Erikson’s stages of psychosocial development and Kohlberg’s stages of moral understanding (Berk, 2010).

            The film Batman Begins explores the life of Bruce Wayne from his beginnings and childhood factors in development until his first forays as Batman, the caped crusader (Nolan, 2005).  Moving out of chronological order, the film starts with Bruce Wayne in his late 20’s or early 30’s exploring the underworld of organized crime, trying to understand the criminal mind.  After an interaction with a secret society, he decides that it is time to return to his home of Gotham City, where after almost a decade absence he had been declared legally deceased.  Throughout the film there are flashbacks to key childhood events that significantly impacted him and his development into the caped vigilante he becomes.  Bruce Wayne initially targets Carmine Falcone, a crime boss he holds responsible for the economic conditions that spurred the mugging and murder of his parents (Nolan, 2005).  However, this leads to a greater conspiracy as the secret society from his past returns in an attempt to destroy Gotham City completely.  While the film focuses on the current struggle in Bruce Wayne’s life to balance his personal life with his alter ego, there is a wealth of information about his childhood and the two key events that took place and changed his life.  The first event was a childhood accident, falling down a well and into a cave full of bats (Nolan, 2005).  This started a fear of bats that would follow him to adulthood and influence his decision to model himself after a bat.  The second was the mugging and murder of his parents (Nolan, 2005). 

            The first life event, which would have a dramatic impact on Bruce Wayne’s development, was a childhood accident that left him with a life long fear of bats.  While playing with a friend, Bruce fell into an old mine shaft and was stranded, injured, in a cave full of bats (Nolan, 2005).  The bats attacked him as they attempted to flee the intruder into their home.  This event traumatized Bruce.  A fear of animals is the most common fear in children, and this would stay with him for the rest of his life (Meltzer, 2008). 

            After the fall and injury in the cave Bruce Wayne was left with a fear of bats.  While watching an opera with his parents, actors in the show dressed as bats set off a panic attack and Bruce and his parents left the theater to get some air.  In the alley outside of the theater, they were mugged by Joe Chill and during the mugging he shot and killed both of Bruce’s parents (Nolan, 2005).  Bruce blamed himself for this, believing had he not been afraid of bats, they would not have left early and his parents would still be alive.  This event stayed with him for the rest of his life and is the basis of his anger with criminals and his desire to seek vigilante justice.

Born to parents of the highest socio-economic status (SES), his early childhood would have afforded him every developmental advantage.  Bruce Wayne’s father, Thomas Wayne, was a prominent physician and philanthropist; his mother’s occupation is not mentioned.  However, both parents were highly educated, nurturing and supportive of their son.  Along with loving parents, Bruce Wayne would have had access to the best schools, private tutors, and any desired extra-curricular activities or sports desired.  Bruce Wayne’s birth into a high SES family would have also meant access to the best medical care and nutrition along with education.  Prior to his parents murder, Bruce Wayne had every developmental advantage money could buy along with the support of loving parents.  However, the murder of his parents at crucial age in his psychosocial development left a scar that he would carry forever and drive him to become a vigilante fighting against crime in his home city of Gotham.

The loss of Bruce’s parents occurred during Erikson’s third stage of development, industry versus inferiority.  This stage is when children develop competence, a sense of moral commitment and responsibility (Berk, 2010).  The alternate outcome at this age is the development of a sense of inferiority, or a child with little confidence in his or her abilities.  Parents are instrumental in this stage of development and by encouraging their child to succeed by gradually raising their expectations of the child as they increase in physical and cognitive ability (Berk, 2010).  The loss of one’s parents at this age has the potential to severely disrupt the evolution of the sense of self as a competent and able individual.  Without parents to encourage the child to attempt new challenges, there is significant risk of withdrawal from daily activities and the development of a sense of inferiority.  Thankfully for Bruce Wayne, although he lost his parents he still had a caring adult in his life, his butler and caregiver, Alfred Pennyworth, to guide him through the bereavement process and provide a nurturing supportive role model.

The bereavement process is important for children to be able to continue their emotional development after the loss of parents.  There are several mental and physical complications that can occur during the bereavement process in children, including frequent anxious behaviors, depression, and conduct disorder (Howarth, 2011).  Howarth (2011) describes a 4-step model for child bereavement in processing the loss of a parent.  First, is to accept the reality of the situation and the permanence of the loss.  To do this, the child will need accurate information so that they can avoid magical thinking.  In this case Bruce, with first hand knowledge of his parent’s death, already has complete knowledge of his parents death and the events that occurred.  The second step is to experience the emotional pain that comes with the loss of a parent.  Third, is adjustment to life without the parent(s).  Finally, in the fourth step, “the child must convert the relationship with the deceased from one based on continuing interactions to one based on memories” (Howarth, 2011).  The death of a child’s parents will have significant and long lasting impact on development.  Fortunately for Bruce Wayne, he was not left entirely alone.  Alfred Pennyworth, the family butler, assumed the role of primary caregiver and raised Bruce as his own child.  This supportive and nurturing relationship would have been instrumental in helping Bruce Wayne maintain positive self-esteem and avoid the many developmental pitfalls that plague child after the loss of a parent, let alone both parents.  The ongoing support received from Alfred is important because studies, such as those conducted by Abdelnoor and Hollins (2004), conclude that the effects of childhood bereavement are ongoing and can have a detrimental effect on secondary and tertiary education.  However, given Bruce’s high academic achievement and overall professional success, it is clear that he was able to avoid the potential pitfalls that can plague children after the loss of their parents.

Erikson’s Latency stage is also a key time for moral development (Berk, 2010).  Moral development has been explored by many theorist’s, however for this paper, Kohlberg’s stages of moral understanding will be the model that will be applied to Bruce Wayne’s moral development.  While all children go through a period of moral growth and understanding, the moral principles that Bruce Wayne has chosen to live by are more concrete and a direct result of the trauma experienced in his childhood.  Kohlberg describes three levels that each contains 2 stages, for a total of 6 possible stages of moral development (Berk, 2010).  Kohlberg’s original findings show that most people never attain the higher stages and that while there is some fluidity in later life, most people are fixed in their moral development by early adulthood.  Bruce Wayne however, is operating at the highest stage of moral development, stage 6, or universal ethical principle orientation (Berk, 2010).  At this stage “right action is defined by self-chosen ethical principles of conscience that are valid for all people, regardless of law and social agreement” (Berk, 2010).  The events in the film depict Bruce’s evolution through the moral stages from the brutal murder of his parents and a life spent wanting revenge to a final epiphany of moral development where he decides to fight for all who have been wronged and not a one-sided quest for revenge.  When the man responsible for his parents murder is released from jail and subsequently murdered, Bruce’s lifelong desire for revenge is taken from him and he is forced to reevaluate his life (Nolan, 2005).  In his quest for understanding he comes to understand the criminal element and realizes that for many the life of crime is not a choice but a reality of a failing society.  Bruce makes a decision to fight for moral justice on two fronts.  First, he assumes the persona of Batman and directly goes after the individuals who create the harmful environmental conditions that increase the likelihood of crime.  Second, he dedicates his public life as a philanthropist to working in causes to combat poverty and the other causes of many criminal behaviors (Nolan, 2005).

From a severe childhood trauma, Bruce Wayne is able to overcome adversity with the help of a dedicated caregiver and become a symbol of hope fighting for the downtrodden.  Erikson’s psychosocial theory of development outlines the importance of the latency period for children to develop confidence in their abilities.  Bruce Wayne would not be able to carryon as Batman without the most extreme confidence in himself to overcome the challenges he would face.  Kohlberg’s original research demonstrated that most people do not reach the higher stages of moral understanding, however, Bruce Wayne is operating at the highest level after years of soul searching and nurturing guidance from his childhood mentor.  At anytime in his life Bruce could have despaired and faltered, but through a strong parental relationship as a young child and a supportive caregiver from his parents murder through to adulthood, he became a hero and symbol for righteousness.  His story clearly illustrates the effects that supportive role models will have in a child’s ongoing emotional, social and cognitive development.

References

Abdelnoor, A., & Hollins, S. (2004).  The Effect of Childhood Bereavement on Secondary School Performance.  Educational Psychology in Practice, 20(1), 43-54.

Berk, L.E. (2010).  Development Through the Lifespan (5th ed.). Boston, MA: Allyn & Bacon.

Howarth, R.A. (2011). Promoting the Adjustment of Parentally Bereaved Children.  Journal of Mental Health Counseling, 33(1), 21-32.

Luecken, L.J., Kraft, A., Appelhans, B.M., & Enders, C. (2009).  Emotional and cardiovascular sensitization to daily stress following childhood parental loss.  Developmental Psychology, 45(1), 296-302. doi:10.1037.a0013888.

Meltzer, H., Vostanis, P., Dogra, N., Doos, L., Ford, T., & Goodman, R. (2008).  Children’s specific fears.  Child: care, health and development, 781-789.  doi: 10.1111/k.1365-2214.2008.00908.x

Nolan, C. (Director). (2005).  Batman Begins [Motion Picture]. United States: Warner Brothers.

08/26/2013, Destiny MMA, Proving Grounds

Last Saturday was my third MMA fight.  The event was put on by Destiny, a local MMA and combat sports event. With 21 fights on the night it was a pretty big event.  The day started off with a little trepidation as I found out that my opponent had been changed last minute because my original opponent apparently did not get his blood work done or turned in.  Either way, the person I had been preparing for was not going to be facing me in the ring.  And while I knew very little about him, I knew absolutely nothing about the person who replaced him.

I was told that the person I was going to fight was doing his first fight (but then I was told my original opponent was doing his first fight and yet teammates had watched him fight in Maui months earlier) and was supposed to be fighting at 135, but didnt want to cut the weight, so wanted to fight at 145 instead.  His opponent supposedly ended up in the hospital the morning of the fight and so we were both at 145 without a match.  So the change was made and the game was held in place because I didnt have anything else to work with.  The only thing I heard was that he would probably be better on the ground than on his feet, which was true.

The fight didnt start well.  That kick landed in the first 20 seconds or so and was the first real connection of the fight.  I was planning the high straight kick to the face.  But not till later in the fight, I mean who starts with that?  My opponent apparently, and it worked.  Thankfully, after employing my face-to-your-foot style I was able to take him down and land some decent ground and pound.  Round 1 was pretty back and forth.  I didnt feel like I was getting the better of the ground exchanges and wasnt really able to keep it standing for long enough to get started.

Second round started a little better with a clinch leading to a side suplex, but my time on top was short lived and was rolled.  After going back and forth on the ground and spending most of the time on my back I was finally able to get back to my feet and have the fight stood back up.  I didnt feel confident that I would take a decision and knew I could win the stand up, so I went for it.  Soon as he was up, I ran in with a flying knee.  And it connected, not sure where, wasnt clean, but it knocked him back, clinched up, fired several knees, one or two landed flush and then a punch exchange.  Right cross connected and he dropped.  Looking down I was pretty sure he was out and the fight was over.  First thought, hands up and walk off triumphant.  That lasted about half a second.  Second thought, drop a bomb and be positive he is not getting back up.  If he got back up and managed to end the round and pulled a decision, I would have been pissed.  So I dove and dropped the right a second time square on the jaw.

Suffice it to say, he did not get back up.  Not for a while and was helped out of the ring.  I talked to him after the fight and he said that he didnt remember getting hit, just came to and it was over.  Now I am running a nice 4-fight win steak with the last 2 by KO.  A little work on my ground game, and not getting kicked in the face and hopefully I can make that 3 KO's in a row.

After the fight I felt pretty good.  My shoulder was incredibly sore and unable to be raised above my head.  But that dissipated quickly, by the next day it was almost 100%, today its fine.  Hands are fine.  A few leg and rib spots clearly got hit, but no pain.  Just my nose and jaw still showing any signs that I was in a fight.  Swelling has mostly gone away from the nose.  Jaw is still a little off, but solid food is back on the menu, so thats a good sign.  Going to BJJ today, but going to take it easy.  A couple more days rest and then back to the grind.  School and work toward the next BJJ belt and stripe ceremony.  November is another half-marathon, so time to start running again.  And time to focus on my wrestling so I can be confident standing and on the ground.

Firearms and Mental Health

Firearms and Mental Health:

Methods to Reduce Mass Shootings and Gun Inflicted Suicide

Brian Long

The Chicago School of Professional Psychology

Abstract

Few issues bring up such divisive debate as firearm ownership.  While recent tragedies have reignited the debate and spurred interest in finding a solution to keeping firearms away from those suffering from mental, there has been little if any agreement on how to achieve this aim.  This paper examines the issues of firearm ownership from two mental health contexts.  First, how to address the question of ownership and firearm purchasing by those with diagnosed mental illness.  Second, how to reduce the risk of suicide by firearms.  Through the use of citizens advocacy and increased education about firearms issues and awareness, Mental Health Professionals can start to address the dangerousness of firearms.

Keywords: firearms ownership, confidentiality, informed consent, gun violence, suicide, prevention

The Second Amendment of the United States Constitution states, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed”.  However, interpretation of the second amendment is a powerfully divisive issue that has had a great impact on the mental health field.  While the intention of the founding fathers and writers of the constitution is under constant debate, there is some agreement that keeping firearms away from those who intend to harm themselves or others is national priority.  Recent tragedies have brought to light the challenges in gun control efforts and the dangers that guns can play in the hands of those suffering from severe mental illness.  Mental Health Professionals have a challenging role in the debate on firearm ownership, safety and the rights of those with mental health disorders.  Following the Tarasoff case, Mental Health Professionals are required to breach confidentiality to warn potential victims.  Should changes to the law be made to allow Mental Health Professionals to breach confidentiality to remove firearms and/or the ability to purchase firearms from individuals determined to be a potential danger to themselves or others?  There are two distinct issues that need to be addressed, 1) keeping mentally disturbed individuals from purchasing firearms and 2) removing access to already owned firearms from those experiencing a mental health crisis.  The removal of rights guaranteed in the constitution is a controversial debate, however the right of individual firearm ownership needs to be weighed against the right to safety of the general public.

Firearms and Mental Illness: Keeping Guns Away from Disturbed Individuals

            The Virginia Tech massacre in 2007 and the Newtown shooting in 2012, along with too many others, have brought to the forefront the debate on firearms ownership and mental health.  Sueng Hui Cho and Adam Lanza, and others in recent tragedies, had histories of mental illness.  In the case of Sueng Hui Cho, he was prohibited from purchasing firearms in Virginia (Virginia Tech Review Panel, 2007), but was able to buy firearms anyway because of incomplete national database participation.  In several of the recent gun tragedies, shooters were able to purchase firearms despite disqualifying mental illness that should have precluded them from being able to procure firearms.

The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was created to regulate the purchase of firearms and prevent disqualified individuals from making firearm purchases (Price & Norris, 2010).  A firearms dealer is required to submit a background check to the FBI before completing any transaction.  The FBI maintains three databases, for this issue the database of concern is the NICS Index, which contains information about prohibited persons such as individuals with “disqualifying mental health history” (Price & Norris, 2010).  The Federal Gun Control Act of 1968 “prohibits possession of a firearm by, or transfer of any firearm to, a person who has been adjudicated as ‘mental defective or committed to a mental institution’ or is an ‘unlawful user or addicted to any controlled substance’” (Price & Norris, 2010).  Together these statutes were created to prevent those with mental illness from purchasing firearms.  However, submission of state level records to the national database is voluntary.  As of 2007 only 22 states had submitted files to the NICS database and firearm sales that take place at gun shows or between private vendors, which amount to 25% of sales, do not have to be reported (Price & Norris, 2010).  These two loopholes have allowed for numerous transactions that should have been stopped to go through, as was the case in the Virginia Tech shooting.

            Sueng Hui Cho was displaying signs of mental illness as early as middle school and according to Virginia law should have been unable to purchase firearms, however due to ambiguity in the wording of the statute at the time, his mental health status was not communicated to the relevant authority (Virginia Tech Review Panel, 2007).  Since the tragedy, Virginia law has been clarified in the hopes of avoiding a future tragedy, however other states have yet to make change to their gun purchase laws and seem to be waiting for their own tragedy before making changes.  A national standard needs to be created to coordinate state level disqualifying mental health information into the NICS database.

Firearms, Mental Illness and Suicide: Preventing a Tragedy

            Many studies have connected the link between suicide completion and firearm use.  Statistics from 2009 show that, “Suicide by firearm was the leading cause of suicide death in the United States, with a rate of 6.3 per 100,000 people” (Sterzer, 2012).  Further the prevalence of firearms in the home, “Almost 40% of American households contain at least one firearm” makes firearms readily available to those contemplating suicide (Miller, 2008).  Due to the lethality that firearms present, suicide attempts involving a firearm are far more likely to be completed than other methods (Sterzer, 2012).  This makes removal of access to firearms for those individuals suffering from acute suicidal ideation a key component to mental health treatment.  While the risk of suicide remains elevated for some time after initially seeking treatment, short-term removal of firearms from the home may greatly reduce the chance of a lethal suicide attempt.  A study by Mike Crawford in Advances in Psychiatric Treatment found that 25% of all deaths occur within 3 months of hospital discharge (2004).  However, there are few laws in place to protect the mentally ill from the danger they pose to themselves during a suicidal period.  The bulk of the debate is centered on preventing those with mental illness from procuring firearms, there is little to no debate about the removal of firearms from those who already own firearms but are currently suffering from suicidal ideation.  Drafting legislation to remove firearms from mentally disturbed individuals will be a highly contentious issue.  However, Mental Health Professionals can work to create informal agreements with clients to voluntarily turn over firearms until after the mental health crisis has passed.  Similar to contracts drawn up between clients and therapists not to harm themselves, an agreement can be made to allow a third party to remove the weapons until a later time when the individual is no longer a danger to themselves.  These plans would have to be discussed and agreed to by the client, but could go a long way in removing the immediate ability for lethal self-harm.

Informed Consent

            Meyer and Weaver (2006) state that for there to be informed consent a person needs to be properly informed about the nature, risks, and benefits of the course of action the mental health professional would like to undertake.  This is related to the Fourteenth Amendment and the right to due process.  The three components of informed consent, voluntariness, disclosure and capacity, all need to be obtained for a person to be able to give informed consent.  When exploring the rights of patients to maintain firearm ownership during times of mental health crisis the issue of capacity takes center stage.  Is a person able to make decisions regarding their health and the safety of others when they are suffering from suicidal or homicidal ideations?  Each state has different laws regarding the purchase and ownership of firearms by those who have been determined to suffer from mental illness.  Depending on the state, disclosures made to a therapist could result in the loss of Second Amendment rights to own or purchase firearms.  Some recent state laws, such as Florida’s Privacy of Firearm Owners Act, have impeded health providers’ abilities to carryout their duty to protect by placing restrictions on asking questions regarding firearm ownership (Falls, 2011).  These questions will be addressed in the following section on informed consent and firearm ownership.

Restrictions on Patient Questioning

            During the initial interview and intake process it is important for mental health workers to be able to freely question their clients in order to develop a complete understanding of the situation and the potential risks they face.  In 2011 the state of Florida passed the “Privacy of Firearm Owners Act [FOPA], which prevented the state’s medical personnel from asking patients about gun ownership” among other things (Falls, 2011).  While this law was aimed at medical personnel, similar statutes could easily be expanded to include the mental health profession.  FOPA limited medical professionals from being able to ask patients about gun ownership or the ability to document ownership on the patient’s medical record.  However, in direct conflict with this law are the precedents that have come from the Tarasoff and Almonte cases, stating a need to protect the victims of potential violence.  The inability to ask certain questions restricts the professionals’ ability to assess potential danger of the client.  As stated in the article by Brian Falls (2011), “Asking suicidal or homicidal individuals about firearms is also paramount to the formulation of a safety plan prior to discharge from an emergency room.”  Several professional groups have joined in calling for a challenge to this law, included is the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP).  In a statement by the AAP President O. Marion Burton, “Tragedies that could have been prevented by a simple conversation will, instead, occur” (Florida Gun Legislation Would…,  2011).  Fortunately, a Florida judge has issued an injunction against FOPA, however, similar statutes remain unchallenged in other states and new restrictions can be put in place (Falls, 2011).  Emergency planning and patients rights to gun ownership during times of mental health crisis will be addressed in later sections of this paper.

            During the initial intake and interview, clients need to be made aware of their rights, how confidentiality works, and the limits that are in place.  Many clients are under the impression that anything said to a mental health worker is confidential, however there are several conditions placed on confidentiality and the client needs to be informed of these limits before beginning therapy.  The ACA code, section B.2. states several exceptions to confidentiality, these include, danger and legal requirements, contagious and life threatening diseases, and court-ordered disclosure (Herlihy & Corey, 2006).  In the case of firearm ownership, the main issue is with dangerousness to self or others.  The ACA code states, “counselors keep information confidential does not apply when disclosure is required to protect clients or identified others from serious and foreseeable harm” (Herlihy & Corey, 2006).  In Tarasoff v. the Regents of the University of California (1976) the duty to warn a specified victim was made a legal requirement that can come with civil penalties for failing to protect the victims of violence (Meyer & Weaver, 2006).  This was further expanded to include non-specific victims in the case of Almonte v. New York Medical College (1994).  In this case it was found that the defendant, Douglas Ingram M.D. was found liable for failing to act to protect the future and unknown victim of his trainee, Dr. Joseph DeMasi (Meyer & Weaver, 2006).  The Virginia Tech shooting in 2007 brings to the forefront the question of warning to protect unspecified victims of potential violence, when to breach confidentiality and what rights should the potentially dangerous retain in regards to firearm ownership.

  Confidentiality, Privilege, and When to Breach

            Meyer and Weaver (2006) describe confidentiality as the “ethical obligation to keep client information private unless legally compelled to disclose it.”  Privilege is the legal equivalent of confidentiality that establishes the right to privacy of communications between client and therapist.  In re Lifschutz (1970) established that this privilege is owned by the client and protected by law, however, there are exceptions to protected speech (Meyer & Weaver, 2006).  During the initial interview and intake process it is the obligation of the therapist to educate their client as to the bounds of confidentiality as discussed earlier in the section on informed consent. 

            Seung Hui Cho was reported and sent for counseling as early as middle school for writing about a desire to carryout a Columbine style shooting (Virginia Tech Review Panel, 2007).  While Cho was receiving support and evaluation from mental health workers following this event, his mental health record was not fully reported to the NICS and he was able to purchase firearms.  Cho’s mental health status should have disqualified him from being able to purchase firearms in the state of Virginia and nationally, however, the rules on reporting were unclear at best and he slipped through the cracks (Virginia Tech Review Panel, 2007; Price & Norris, 2010).  To prevent future tragedies and follow the trend of protecting potential victims from violence, should stricter standards for firearm ownership be federally mandated?

            Firearms provide the potential for one individual to perpetrate great violence against a large group of people in a very short period of time.  Gun tragedies are claiming victims in the dozens by lone gunmen.  As established in Tarasoff (1976), Mental Health Professionals have a duty to warn victims.  However, if the victim(s) are unclear, who do you warn?  With the destructive nature of firearms, would society be better served by removing the implement to carry out these crimes from individuals until they have received the care they need?

Addressing the Dangers of Firearms

            There have been many proposed solutions to help protect society from the risk of gun violence stemming from those suffering from mental illness.  Both protecting individuals from hurting themselves and preventing individuals from being able to hurt others need to be addressed.  There are many solutions that can be easily implemented.  While there is no single solution to eliminate the risks of firearm violence, the first steps need to be taken to tackle this deadly problem.  The first step should be to close the loopholes in the NICS database.  Second, the gun show exception for firearm purchases needs to be eliminated. Finally, Mental Health Professionals need to be educated about the importance of questioning their clients about firearm ownership during initial interviews with clients who are presenting symptoms that suggest violent or suicidal tendencies.  This should include training during their education on how to approach the subject and planning procedures for removing weapons from potentially dangerous individuals.

Closing the Loopholes

            The first step that states and the federal government should take is to improve the NICS database and close the gun show loophole for firearm sales.  While this will not completely solve the problem, it is easily done and the effects should be able to keep firearms away from many who would be a danger to themselves or others.  The largest problem facing states and NICS database compliance are differing definitions of “disqualifying mental illness”.  The federal government can take the lead by proposing a uniform standard that states can agree to or not. However, if they choose to follow a lower standard, pressure from citizen groups can be brought to bear on state officials to hopefully achieve national compliance.

            The NICS database currently relies on states to voluntarily submit information regarding mental health status of in-state patients.  As of April 2007, less than half the US states were submitting mental health records to the NICS (Price & Norris, 2010).  A federal law requiring submission of mental health data will be met with significant opposition from the NRA and other pro-gun lobbies that exert considerable influence in politics.  Rather than trying to legislate change, the APA and other professional associations can lobby the representatives in their states to participate in the voluntary submission of mental health records to the NICS.  Recent gun tragedies have started a debate on how to best care for those with mental illness and how to keep guns away from those who are not able to use them responsibly.  Updating and maintaining the NICS database is one cost-effective method that is already in place and ready to go.  While it may lead to some people being deprived of their right to firearms, the risk posed to public safety is far greater. 

            One simple change that can be added to the NICS database to counter the gun lobby’s protests would be to add a clear method to be removed from disqualifying status on the NICS database.  If someone who has been prohibited from purchasing firearms due to mental illness, they could be removed from the NICS after completing and evaluation by a qualified professional.  This would ensure that the public is protected and individual rights would also have a mechanism in place to ensure they are protected.

            The next change that has been repeatedly brought up in national debate is the so-called gun show loophole on background checks.  As it currently stands, background checks are not required when private citizens, including private vendors at gun shows, sell firearms.  Given the evolution of technology and the ease with which documentation can be processed, there is no reason to maintain this allowance.  While many argue that sales between private citizens should not be regulated, there is already plenty of precedent for government regulation of private sales.  Car sales and ownership have to be registered with the local government, firearms should be as well.  The constitution states the right to ownership, not anonymous ownership, will not be infringed.

Asking Questions: Patients and Firearms

            The last step that Mental Health Professionals can take is to start including questions about firearms ownership in their initial client interviews.  Determining their clients views on gun ownership, if they own weapons, and if they are planning on purchasing a weapon can be used in performing a complete threat assessment.  While this would not need to be conducted in all situations, when a client appears that they could be a threat to themselves or others, clinicians should ask about firearms to get a clear picture of the level of threat their client poses. 

            Part of the education of up and coming Mental Health Professionals should include how to address firearm issues with clients and firearm removal plans in the case of suicidal patients.  If a client presents with suicidal or homicidal ideations and has disclosed firearm ownership, it would be imperative to remove the weapons from the individual before they can harm themselves or others.  Laws requiring the removal of weapons would be heavily challenged, but that should not prevent Mental Health Professionals from coming up with informal plans for removing firearms, with client agreement, from the home.  Should the client refuse to voluntarily give up their weapons then stronger actions, such as civil commitment, can be pursued to protect the individual or the greater public.

First Steps

            There are many actions that can be taken to address the dangerousness of firearms.  The Second Amendment is a founding principle of the United States and while its meaning is often debated; agreement is not going to be coming soon.  In the meantime, steps need to be taken to stop the recent spate of gun violence and school tragedies that are destroying our great nation.  A few simple steps can be taken to keep guns out of the hands that would do great harm to themselves or others.  By training Mental Health Professionals to ask about firearm ownership and working to create a clear national standard that all states can accept, we can reduce the risk of gun violence by the mentally ill. 

References

Crawford, M.J. (2004).  Suicide following discharge from in-patient psychiatric care.  Advances in Psychiatric Treatment 10, 434-438.  doi:10.1192/apt.10.6.434

Falls, Brian. (2011).  Legislation prohibiting physicians from asking patients about guns.  Journal of Psychiatry & Law, 39(3), 441-463.

Florida Gun Legislation Would Hinder Pediatrician’s Efforts to Protect Children. (2011).  Audiology Online, 10.

Herlihy, B. & Corey, G. (2006).  ACA Ethical Standards Casebook (6^th ed.).  Alexandria, VA: American Counseling Association.

Miller, M. (2008, June).  Handguns and health.   Harvard Mental Health Letter. p. 8.

Meyer, R. G., & Weaver, C. M. (2006). Law and mental health: a case-based approach. New York: Guilford.

Price, M., & Norris, D. (2010). Firearm Laws: A Primer for Psychiatrists.  Harvard Review Of Psychiatry, 18(6), 326-335. doi:10.3109/10673229.2010.527520

Sterzer, J. (2012).  The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.  Journal of Legal Medicine, 33(1), 171-199.  doi: 10.1080/01947648.2012.657993

Virginia Tech Review Panel.  (2007).  Mass Shootings at Virginia Tech April 16, 2007: Report of the Review Panel.

08/18/2013

Last week was another term completed for CSPP.  Still waiting for final grades from one class, but my ARP masters proposal was accepted and one class was finished with a solid 97%.  Pretty confident that I should be able to maintain my almost perfect GPA with that one damn A- on there to mess it up.  This is the rest week between classes and then its on to Interview skills and Behavior Disorders and round two of ARP seminar, which I think is the Lit Review.

This is also the rest week for my fight this Saturday.  Going to be my first mma fight in almost 6 years.  Going to try and improve on my 1-1 record, so that it can be something more like my 4-1 kickboxing record.  This will be my second fight on the year and hopefully I can take advantage of being in US and in school while I still have the time to spend training that I need to feel confident to fight.  Next step is going to be a grappling tournament so I can hopefully get ready to test for my BJJ blue belt, only been about a decade of inconsistent training to get there.  I guess consistency helps a lot with things like that.

The fight should be good.  I am feeling pretty confident in my hands and striking and from the people who know my opponent I dont expect him to try and take it to the ground.  So if it stays standing I feel confident.  Should it go to the ground I have been working a lot on that recently and as long as I can either get back to my feet or get on top then it should be good for me as well.  Just dont want a repeat of my last fight in CO where I got stuck on my back and slowly got ground out and lost the decision.  Right now the hardest thing is resting and keeping my diet together to cut down to 145... I workout so I dont have to diet and exercise self control.  A week without ice cream could result in some serious binging next week, have to see how much I jump when I dont have to keep the food away.  Right now the fish, fruit and fudge diet seems to be working, but may have to cut of the third f soon.

Also in getting ready for the fight, I brought the mohawk back and to try something new I dyed it green.  So thats been fun, definitely notice that people look at you a little different when you have green hair covering about a quarter of your head.  Have to say though from the speed that the dye is fading, I am not sure it is going to be worth keeping it up for too long.  The dyeing process is a pain, have to be super careful not to turn everything from clothes to the forehead green and then a couple days in the sun and swimming in the ocean and it starts to fade right away.  Maybe Hawaii is just not that conducive for dyed hair, need a colder climate.  But think Ill keep the mohawk for a little while, I am interested in going out looking for jobs and seeing the reactions that I get.  Kind of a little psych experiment.  In Hawaii tattoos are much more a part of the culture than in other places so they really dont matter.  Its the only place I have lived so far that the face tattoo is fairly common or at least I have seen on more than one person and they hold real jobs.  But I am not sure that carries to green mohawks. I will be interested in seeing what comes from the job interviews next week.

08/12/2013

In a new attempt to write a little less but more often, here we go...

Two weeks out to the fight and the mohawk is back... not quite as long yet as last time, but so far getting compliments.  Not sure if it is going to help me to find a job, but who knows, the last haircut wasnt really doing the trick so maybe this can make me stand out.  The next step is going to be to dye it blond today so that it can be green by the fight.  Another thing to check off the list, always wanted green hair, not sure why but seemed like fun.

Weekend was good, still trying to get over this cold that hit me hard last week.  The cold is mostly gone, but some lingering congestion and mild sore throat just wont quit.  Its just not what I want to have in the back of my mind while trying to get through this week of training.  And this week is going to be super busy with last week of fight prep and last week of the term for psych classes.

I am looking forward to next term though, going to be taking interview skills and psychological and behavioral disorders, two classes that are starting to get a little more interesting than the background courses taken so far.  I think from here out the rest of the classes are much more targeted to the fun stuff and less on the nuts and bolts of psych.

this is the start, its time to get to the gym.

08/09/2013

Guess Im not doing to well with keeping up this blog.  It was about this time last year that I finished my job in Wuhan and was preparing to go on my cycle trip through Asia.  Its been a hell of year.  I think I have done more in the last 365 days than any other set so far.  Right now I am gearing up to fight again.  I have an MMA fight on the 24th.  It should be a pretty minor event, as its amateur and the Hawaii rules are even more restrictive than when I fought in CO before.  Here its only 2 rounds unless a draw and then goes to a 3rd and there are no elbows on the ground, only standing.  But it will still be good to keep actively competing.  With the match last December and if I can keep this going I would like to try and keep up with 2 a year and maybe a grappling tournament and a running race or two.  That would be a fairly active year.  At the moment I signed up for the Xterra half marathon in Nov.  That competition should round out the year.  Although I am hoping to get a grappling tournament in there somewhere as well.

My BJJ is going well.  I think I might finally be in one place long enough to actually be able to test and get my blue belt.  Right now I am able to control and sometimes submit the guys who are one level above and there is a another promotion coming up in September.  I dont think I am going to test, but I do hope to get my third stripe and put myself to be in position to test the next time around, which would be sometime around december/january.  although given my upcoming travel schedule I may not be able to train as much as I need to be ready.  But that would be a good thing because the injuries are starting to rack up. All overuse injuries, make it very frustrating.  Turf toe in both big toes and a strain in my left thumb.  All the joints are getting strained and just dont recover and never get any rest.  I hear when you turn 30 it all falls apart, this might be the precursor to that.

School is moving along and I am starting to work on my masters seminar project.  Still in development, but I am holding my 3.8+GPA so happy about that.  So far one question has shot my 4.0 and I was contesting it, never going to let that go... Anyway what can you do.

Now I just need to find a job, or someone who wants to give me money and everything will be good. 

July 14th, 2013

This week...classes are going well.  Into my second week of the term and have to submit my initial ARP (masters research proposal) topic in for my seminar class.  Right now it is a focus on understanding motivational systems employed in China and the US and more importantly trying to educate managers from one culture about how to use and understand methods that will and wont work in an integrated business.  I think I wrote it out a little cleaner on my proposal, but still not really sure how I will go about implementing the research side of the project.  I guess the first part will be getting the topic approved and setup completely, then I can figure out how I am going to go about proving it (or not).

The scuba job is not going so well.  It seems that my introduction to local Hawaiian business practice is however right on track.  It has not yet been confirmed, but I get the sense that the company set out responses to several people and brought in more than they needed expecting to weed some out through the training process.  One washed out because she was not physically able to do the job.  That leaves 3 people for two spots.  The other two divers are willing to work 6 days a week, where as I can only give 3 or maybe 4 days.  There is no need to have us all there on one day.  So either another diver and I would both take 3 days or they just run the skeleton and have everyone on 6 days and I dont get any hours.  It would makes sense (and benefit me) to have two people part-time to cover sick days and vacations and anything else that comes up, but I get the sense that I am going to have my days reduced until I am not on the schedule.  So far calls to the person that had set my schedule have gone from instant return to days without call backs and messages promising a call tomorrow that never comes.  Last week I worked two days, next week I am on for Monday and thats it.  Sucks when you cant trust the person you deal with because in the original conversations that led me to buy some gear, it was represented that the job would be ongoing and that I was a good fit.  Maybe back to the job search sooner than later.

On a good job note, I think my kickboxing student may have finally recovered enough from his wrist injury to start doing private boxing lessons again.  So at least that can get going again.  Although he said that we are going to have to keep it kind of quiet so his wife doesnt find out he is boxing again... life is fun.

Training is going well and I am happy with my BJJ progression.  I am hoping that if can keep up training I will be able to test for my blue belt by the end of the year or so.  I am still waiting for confirmation about the MMA fights scheduled for the end of August.  Hopefully will know something one way or another soon.

Changed the motorcycle oil today and the bike seems to be running clean.  Now that the wiring problem has been fixed and pretty much all the parts that wear have been replaced I think (hope) it should be running without incident for a while.

Now to find a job that I can do part time and is regular without playing its employees and doesnt have any baggage to take home from the office and that I enjoy and find either educational, stimulating or fun... thats not too much to ask is it?

Independence Day 7/4/2013

In trying to write a little more than every 6 weeks I am going to force myself to sit down and get something out...

The new job is going pretty well.  Its easy enough but still challenging in that what you do is important to make sure people are safe and have a good time.  The other day I forgot to turn the air on for the BOB (the underwater scooter) and the thing sank fast with buoyancy   The woman was having a great time, but I noticed the bubble kept filling faster than I was expecting and way higher than it should be. I couldnt figure out what was wrong for a second and then it hit me... it helps to have air to keep up the pressure.  I quickly turned the tank on and everything smoothed out.  The woman had a huge smile and was having a great time oblivious to what was going on.  and with the regulator in my mouth and mask on, you couldnt the confused freakout face that I had on, so it was good for everyone.  Other than that, it has only gotten easier and now is pretty routine.  Its nice to have something physical and while the dive site is getting routine, its still cool to go dive with turtles and keep eyes out for the odd eel or reef shark that goes by.

School is going well, although my 4.0 is already shot.  Last term was A, A-, so now with a 3.89, whats the point?  Might as well change programs again and transfer the credits.  Just kidding.  It is frustrating to realize that I missed the A by on question that I had been arguing with my teacher and let it go because "one question wont affect the outcome of my final grade" (my words when I dropped the issue).  Guess those 4 points were the difference in the end, missed the A by 3.5 points out of 533.  This term is Lifespan, ARP seminar 1, and Mental health law.  So I am starting to work on what my final project will be.

My schedule will be pretty busy, training full time, school and working 3 or 4 days a week. I am still waiting to fall into a regular schedule for work, but hoping they can work that out by next week.

Also I got a call back for a second interview with the Honda Center at Kapiolani Community College, for a job as a translator to work with Chinese students applying to the school.  After the first interview I was sure that I wouldnt be called back.  On the translation section of the interview I didnt have a clue how to translate "create cooperative pathway agreement for the mutual exchange and benefit of students between China partner A and US partner B..." so I went for gist and big ideas.  Guess is worked.  Now that I got the call back, I am not sure if I want it.  Its a real job and there is no way that I can work full-time. study full-time and train full-time.  thats too many full-time's.  I am already sans social life... But I will go to the interview, at least for the practice and see what they have to offer.  Who knows?